Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Demis Mejia, and I'm a healthcare professional from California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I appreciate the chance to comment on how the CFTC can approach this growing area.
As someone working in healthcare, I deal with a lot of uncertainty, not just in patient care but also in the financial and regulatory landscape that affects my profession. I've used prediction markets a few times to get a sense of where things might be headed, like potential changes in healthcare policy or economic shifts that could impact my income or costs. These markets aren't just a curiosity for me; they've offered unique insights I can't find in news articles or polls. The prices reflect what people actually think, based on real money and real stakes, and that's valuable information for planning my personal finances.
I want to emphasize that informed trading in these markets isn't a problem, it's a strength. When people with knowledge or research put their money down, it sharpens the accuracy of the market's predictions. That benefits everyone, not just the traders. For example, if I'm looking at a market on a policy change that could affect hospital funding, a more accurate price helps me make better decisions about my career or savings. I think this ties directly to Question 29 in your ANPR, about whether informed traders aid price discovery. My view is clear: they do, and that's a public good.
I'm also aware of the concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and I get why that's a worry. But I don't think the answer is to shut down or over-restrict these markets. The CFTC already has rules and tools to tackle bad actors, just like in other financial markets. Banning whole categories of contracts or making it hard for regular people like me to participate would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. That seems riskier to me. Instead, focus on enforcing existing laws and tailoring regulations to specific risks.
Prediction markets also have real hedging value. For someone like me, being able to hedge against policy or economic outcomes that hit my wallet, like changes in healthcare reimbursement rates, is practical. It's not gambling; it's about managing risk with research and judgment, much like any other investment.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or overly limit them. Craft rules that address specific concerns while preserving access for everyday people and the unique information these markets provide. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Demis Mejia
