Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Hunter Homola, and I'm an everyday citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted a way to make sense of the uncertainty around major events, like elections or economic policy changes. The prices on these platforms often tell me things I can't find in news articles or polls. They're not perfect, but I've seen firsthand how they cut through noise and give a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. This isn't just helpful for traders like me; it's useful for anyone who needs to plan ahead, whether that's a small business owner or just someone trying to make personal financial decisions. I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery, and that benefits all market participants, not just a select few.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. To me, trading on these markets feels a lot closer to investing in stocks or commodities. It takes research, thought, and judgment about real-world events. Ive used prediction markets to hedge risks that affect my life, like potential changes in tax policy after an election. Thats not a game; its a practical tool to manage uncertainty. I think the CFTC should recognize that these contracts serve legitimate economic purposes and shouldn't be lumped in with gaming, as discussed in questions 15 to 22 of the ANPR.
Another reason I value these markets is their ability to help individuals and businesses protect against real risks. For example, Ive placed trades to offset concerns about inflation data releases that could impact my cost of living. If I can hedge against that, it gives me a little more stability. I know businesses do this too, especially for things like regulatory shifts. This hedging utility is a big deal, and I hope the CFTC considers this when balancing innovation and consumer protection, as raised in questions 7 to 14.
I understand there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, but I dont think the answer is to ban or overly restrict these markets. The CFTC already has tools to tackle bad actors, and those should be enforced rather than punishing everyone by shutting down access. Banning prediction markets would just push activity to unregulated, offshore platforms, which seems worse for everyone.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please allow these platforms to operate under clear, fair rules that address specific risks without broad prohibitions. Theyre a valuable tool for people like me, and I believe they can be regulated in a way that protects the public while preserving their benefits.
Sincerely,
Hunter Homola
