Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Kane, and I'm an everyday citizen from New Jersey who actively trades on prediction markets like Kalshi. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge you to craft rules that allow these markets to thrive under fair oversight.
I've been trading on prediction markets for a while now, mainly focusing on elections and major public events. What draws me to these platforms is how they cut through the noise. I've seen firsthand that their forecasts are often more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. For example, during the last election cycle, I relied on market prices to get a clearer picture of likely outcomes than what I heard from news outlets. This isn't just helpful for traders; it benefits everyone by providing better information about what's coming. I think that's a public good worth protecting.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are just gambling. To me, trading on these markets feels a lot like investing in stocks. It takes research, judgment, and a real understanding of the world. I'm not just guessing; I'm analyzing data and trends to make informed decisions. Classifying this as "gaming" doesn't make sense when it serves legitimate economic purposes like price discovery and even hedging against uncertainty. I hope the CFTC sees this distinction when addressing questions 15 through 22 on listed activities.
Another point I care about is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, give regular people like me a chance to engage with these tools safely. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, I worry activity will just shift to unregulated offshore sites where there's no consumer protection. Regulation, not prohibition, is the answer. This ties into questions 7 through 14 on public interest, where I believe the balance should tilt toward innovation with strong safeguards.
I'm also aware of concerns about insider trading or manipulation. But I think informed trading actually improves price accuracy, benefiting all participants. Banning markets to stop a few bad actors seems like overkill when laws already exist to address these issues. The CFTC has the tools; use them. This relates to questions 29 through 32 on inside information, where I support rules targeting specific risks rather than broad restrictions.
Finally, I believe the US should lead in financial innovation. Academic research backs the value of prediction markets for aggregating information, and transparent data from these platforms can help everyone make better decisions. Let's not cede this space to other countries.
I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to grow while protecting consumers. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
John Kane
