Comment Text:
Dear Losers,
My name is Fake Kalshi User, and I'm writing from New York to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm an active trader on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to society, and I want to share my perspective on why the CFTC should encourage their growth with balanced rules, not heavy-handed restrictions.
As someone who trades regularly on Kalshi, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights you can't get from polls or pundits. I started trading because I wanted better information about elections and other public events. The prices on these markets often cut through the noise of media spin and give a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. For example, during the last election cycle, I noticed the market odds on Kalshi were consistently more reliable than the talking heads on TV or even some national polls. This isn't just helpful for me as a trader; it's valuable for anyone who wants to understand the world better, whether they're in business, journalism, or just trying to stay informed.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues to watch. But the CFTC already has laws and tools to tackle fraud and abuse in other markets. Applying those same protections here makes more sense than banning or over-restricting prediction markets. Shutting them down would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which helps no one. Plus, these markets aren't gambling in my view. They take research and judgment, just like trading stocks or futures. I spend hours reading up on candidates, policies, and economic data before placing a trade. Thats not a game; it's an investment in understanding reality.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the CFTC should prioritize rules that protect users without stifling the growth of these markets. And on Question 15, regarding what constitutes "gaming," I urge you not to lump prediction markets into that category. They serve a real purpose in forecasting and risk management, distinct from betting or lotteries.
Prediction markets are a powerful tool for aggregating information, and the U.S. should be a leader in this space. Im asking the CFTC to craft proportionate regulations that address specific risks while allowing platforms like Kalshi to operate and innovate. Dont let a few potential bad actors ruin a system that benefits so many of us.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Fake Kalshi User
