Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mason Sanders, and I'm an everyday citizen from Illinois writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence under thoughtful, fair regulation by the CFTC. I believe these markets offer real value to people like me, and I want to see them regulated in a way that keeps them accessible and safe.
I care deeply about having the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just for big investors or institutions; they give regular folks like me a chance to engage with information about the world in a unique way. I've read that the prices on these markets often predict outcomes better than polls or pundits, and that kind of insight shouldn't be locked away from everyday people. It's not gambling, either. Trading on these platforms takes research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. Event contracts have real economic purposes, like helping individuals and businesses hedge against risks. For instance, a small business owner might use a market to protect against policy changes after an election, or someone like me could hedge against economic shifts that hit my budget hard.
I'm also concerned about consumer protection, which is why I believe regulated markets, like Kalshi on a CFTC-registered exchange, are the way to go. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people won't just stop trading; they'll turn to unregulated offshore platforms that offer no oversight or safety. That's a bigger risk to consumers than a well-regulated market here in the US. Regulation should focus on keeping things transparent and fair, not shutting down the whole idea.
In response to some of the specific questions in the ANPR, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I think the CFTC should prioritize balancing innovation with protection by supporting regulated markets over driving activity offshore. Also, regarding Topic Area E on inside information (Questions 29-32), I believe informed trading actually helps price discovery. It makes the market's predictions more accurate, which benefits everyone, not just traders. The CFTC already has tools to tackle insider trading and manipulation, so the focus should be on enforcing those rules, not banning entire markets.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them accessible, safe, and under your oversight so people like me can benefit from their insights and protections without turning to riskier alternatives. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Mason Sanders
