Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Valentino Centanni, and I'm a student from New York. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer unique value and shouldn't be overly restricted or banned.
As a student, I spend a lot of time studying data, trends, and how information shapes decisions. Prediction markets have been an incredible tool for me to see real-world probabilities play out. They're often more accurate than polls or pundits, which I've noticed while following political and economic events for class projects. The prices on these markets give insights you just can't get elsewhere, and that benefits not only traders like me but anyone paying attention to the news or making decisions based on forecasts. I think this ties directly to your questions in Topic Area B, specifically Question 7, about balancing innovation with consumer protection. Prediction markets are innovative, and with the right oversight, they can be safe and useful for the public.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. I'm not just tossing a coin; I'm reading up on policies, candidates, or economic indicators before making a trade. This serves a real purpose, like price discovery and even hedging small risks in my life, such as election outcomes that might affect student loan policies. Labeling this as gaming, as discussed in Topic Area C, Question 15, feels inaccurate and dismissive of the real economic value here.
Another big concern for me is freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you ban or over-restrict prediction markets, as brought up in several of your questions, people like me won't stop being curious about these events. We'll just end up on sketchy platforms with no protections. I'd rather trade on a regulated exchange where rules are enforced. This connects to Topic Area B, Question 8, about the public interest in these markets. Regulated markets keep activity transparent and protect users, which is in everyone's interest.
I understand worries about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to handle that. Banning entire markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone else. I urge you to focus on proportionate regulation instead. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to regular people like me, with clear rules to prevent abuse.
Thank you for considering my input. I hope the CFTC will support well-regulated prediction markets and avoid broad restrictions that push activity offshore.
Sincerely,
Valentino Centanni
