Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Matthew Gaffney, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Colorado writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive under fair oversight.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted better information than what I could find in news or polls. Honestly, the forecasts on these platforms have consistently been more accurate than anything I hear from pundits. Thats not just helpful for traders like me; its useful for anyone trying to make sense of whats happening in the world, whether its an election or an economic event. Plus, Ive used these markets to hedge personal risks. For instance, Ive placed trades on economic indicators that could impact my budget, like inflation data affecting my cost of living. This isnt gambling. Its about research and making informed decisions, just like investing in stocks.
I also believe that regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than the offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people arent going to stop trading. Theyll just go to unregulated platforms with no consumer protections. Ive seen how Kalshi operates with clear rules and transparency, and Id much rather trade there than risk my money on some shady offshore site. Regulation keeps us safe, and I think the CFTC should focus on that instead of pushing activity out of reach.
On a broader level, Im worried that over-restricting prediction markets could hurt US innovation. We should be leading the way in financial tools like these, not letting other countries take over. And lets not forget that informed trading actually helps everyone. When people with real knowledge participate, the prices get more accurate, and that benefits all of us, not just the traders. Im looking at some of the CFTCs questions, like numbers 7 and 8 on public interest and price discovery, and Id say prediction markets clearly serve a public good by providing reliable data and helping people manage risks.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But those issues are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to address them. Shutting down or overly limiting these markets punishes regular folks like me who just want to participate in a legal, fair system. Please dont let a few bad actors ruin something that works for so many.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi safe and accessible for everyday people, and dont let heavy-handed rules push this activity offshore. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Matthew Gaffney
