Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kaden Sayamnet, and Im a trader and investor based in Washington state. Ive dabbled in prediction markets a few times, and Im writing to support proportionate regulation of these markets as outlined in your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to individuals like me and to society as a whole, and I urge you to craft rules that allow them to thrive under fair oversight.
As someone who trades and invests, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information you cant get anywhere else. Their forecasts often beat polls or pundit opinions by a wide margin. Ive used these platforms to get a clearer picture of election outcomes or economic events, and that helps me make better decisions in my own portfolio. But its not just about me; this kind of aggregated insight benefits everyone, from regular folks to policymakers. Im particularly drawn to how these markets democratize access to information. Letting everyday people participate, not just big institutions, makes the data more robust and levels the playing field.
I also want to stress that event contracts arent gambling in my view. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks or discovering prices for uncertain events. When I trade on a prediction market, Im researching and analyzing real-world trends, just like I do with stocks or commodities. Treating this as gaming would be a mistake, and I hope the CFTC avoids that framing when addressing questions like 15 through 22 on listed activities.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these problems, as youve shown in other derivatives markets. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets isnt the answer; it just pushes activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Plus, informed trading often improves price discovery, which helps everyone in the market. I think your questions 29 through 32 on inside information hit on this, and Id encourage rules that target bad actors without punishing the rest of us.
Finally, I believe the US needs to lead in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard, other countries will take the lead, and American traders like me will lose out. Im asking you to consider these points, especially in relation to questions 7 through 14 on public interest and balancing innovation with protection. Please support well-regulated prediction markets that allow legal participation without unnecessary bans or restrictions.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Kaden Sayamnet
