Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Lisa, and I'm an everyday citizen from New York who actively trades on prediction markets like Kalshi. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations rather than overly restrictive rules or bans.
I've been trading on Kalshi for over a year now, focusing on events like election outcomes and economic indicators. The information I get from these markets is unlike anything else out there. Their forecasts are often more accurate than polls or pundits, which helps me make better decisions, whether it's planning my budget around potential policy changes or just understanding what's likely to happen in the world. This isn't just useful for traders; the public, media, and even policymakers benefit from this kind of transparent, aggregated data. I think this ties directly to your questions on price discovery and public interest in Topic B (Questions 7-14).
I also see prediction markets as a tool for regular people to hedge real risks. For instance, I've used them to offset uncertainties around inflation data that affect my cost of living. This isn't gambling, no matter what some might say. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" under Topic C (Questions 15-22) would be a mistake; they serve legitimate economic purposes like hedging and information discovery. Plus, allowing everyday folks like me to participate makes the markets fairer and the prices more accurate. Shutting us out would just concentrate the benefits with big institutions.
I do understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, as raised in Topic E (Questions 29-32). But the CFTC already has powerful tools to tackle these issues in other derivatives markets. Use those instead of broad bans. Informed trading actually improves price discovery, helping everyone. And let's be honest, banning or over-restricting these markets won't stop them; it'll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe for consumers like me. I'd much rather trade on a regulated U.S. market like Kalshi, under your oversight.
Finally, I believe the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't cede this space to other countries. As you consider Topic A (Questions 1-6) on core principles, I ask you to focus on targeted rules that address specific risks without stifling the entire industry. Proportionate regulation is the way to go.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow them to thrive while protecting consumers.
Sincerely,
Lisa
