Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Roemon Christian, and I'm a student from Arkansas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been following this issue closely, largely thanks to YouTubers who break down how prediction markets work, and I've even started trading on platforms like Kalshi myself. I believe these markets have real value, and I'm asking you to support fair, proportionate regulation rather than heavy-handed restrictions.
I support prediction markets because they give people like me, just regular students, a chance to engage with real-world events in a meaningful way. Trading on Kalshi isn't just about making a few bucks; it's about understanding economic and political trends through a different lens. The prices often tell a story that polls or news can't match, and I think that kind of insight should be available to everyone, not locked away for big institutions. Plus, I believe the United States should be leading the charge in financial innovation. If we over regulate or ban these markets, we're just handing the future to other countries who will embrace this technology while we fall behind.
That said, I do worry about insider trading. I've read what some CEOs of prediction market platforms say, that insider knowledge can help prices be more accurate. I don't buy it. For most of us, insider trading just tilts the game toward a tiny group of people with privileged info. Worse, it could tempt bad actors to manipulate real-life events, no matter how serious or harmful, just to cash in on a bet. That's not a future I want. So, I'm proposing a simple fix: close the betting window at least a day (or more depending on the seriousness of that bet) before an event's outcome is decided. That way, last-minute insider info can't be exploited as easily. This ties into your questions 29 through 32 on inside information. I think the CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets, and those can work here too with some tweaks, like the betting window idea.
I'm also looking at questions 7 through 14 on balancing innovation and public interest. I believe the answer isn't broad bans on categories of event contracts but targeted rules that address specific risks. Banning whole markets punishes everyone for the actions of a few. Let's keep the freedom to participate in legal, regulated spaces while cracking down on actual bad behavior.
I appreciate the chance to weigh in. Prediction markets are a powerful tool for people like me to learn, participate, and even hedge against uncertainty. Please regulate them fairly and keep the U.S. at the forefront of financial innovation.
Sincerely,
Roemon Christian
