Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nabil Fahel, and I'm an everyday citizen from Virginia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they are a valuable tool that should be regulated fairly, not banned or overly restricted.
I support well-regulated prediction markets because they give people like me a chance to participate in a legal, transparent system. I've used these platforms to make small trades on events that affect my life, like economic policy changes that could impact my budget or local business costs. It's not gambling to me; it's a way to hedge real risks and make informed decisions based on research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. I think it's important that regular folks have the freedom to take part in these markets, not just big institutions. The information these markets provide, often more accurate than polls or pundits, helps everyone, whether they trade or not.
I also believe prediction markets help individuals and small businesses manage uncertainty. For example, a local shop owner might use them to hedge against policy shifts that could hurt their bottom line. That's a practical use, not a game. On the flip side, I get the concern about manipulation or insider trading. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues, just as you do for other markets like futures or commodities. There's no need to reinvent the wheel; just apply those existing rules and enforce them. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't stop bad actors. It will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight at all. That seems riskier to me.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulation should focus on transparency and enforcement, not broad prohibitions. And on Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe the existing laws against insider trading are enough if they're enforced properly. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad apples punishes the rest of us who are playing by the rules.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them legal and accessible under clear, fair rules. Don't let heavy-handed restrictions or outright bans drive this activity underground or overseas. Thank you for considering my perspective as you shape these policies.
Sincerely,
Nabil Fahel
