Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Aiden Berlinger, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide unique value to people like me, and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive while addressing legitimate concerns.
I've found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for getting information that I can't find anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome or a major public event, the forecasts on these platforms often beat polls and pundits hands down. That accuracy helps me make better decisions, and I think it could help the public and even policymakers if more people had access to this data. Beyond just forecasting, I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive traded contracts tied to economic indicators that affect my budget, like inflation data impacting my rent and groceries. This isn't gambling to me; it's a practical tool, much like investing in stocks or futures.
Im also worried about what happens if these markets get banned or over-restricted. Ive seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and theyre nowhere near as safe or transparent as a regulated market like Kalshi. Pushing activity offshore by making rules too tight would hurt regular traders like me and make it harder to protect consumers. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets. I trust those can be adapted here without needing broad bans. Plus, informed trading actually improves price discovery, which benefits everyone, not just traders.
Id like to address a few specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I believe prediction markets serve a real economic purpose through forecasting and hedging, and they shouldn't be classified as gaming. On Question 15, about listed activities, I urge the CFTC to avoid labeling event contracts as gambling when they clearly support legitimate needs. And on Question 33, about classification, I think proportionate regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions, is the way to go. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not letting other countries take the reins.
I understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but shutting down or overly restricting these markets isn't the answer. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few bad actors doesn't make sense. Instead, I ask the CFTC to focus on targeted rules that address specific risks while allowing regular people like me to participate in legal, regulated markets. Please support the growth of prediction markets with fair and balanced regulation.
Sincerely,
Aiden Berlinger
