Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Porter Young, and I'm just a regular guy from Idaho writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a lawyer or a financial expert, just someone whos found prediction markets to be useful in my life, and I want to urge you to support fair and proportionate regulation of these markets rather than overly restrictive rules or bans.
Ive been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I can tell you firsthand that these event contracts arent gambling, no matter what some might say. They serve a real purpose. I put time into researching and thinking through the events Im trading on, whether its an election outcome or an economic indicator. Its not a coin flip or a slot machine. Its about judgment and understanding the world, much like investing in stocks or other markets. To me, calling this gaming feels like a misunderstanding of whats really going on.
Whats struck me most is how prediction markets often get things right when polls and pundits dont. Ive seen it myself, tracking election forecasts or inflation numbers on Kalshi, where the market prices consistently seem to cut through the noise of talking heads on TV. This isnt just helpful for traders like me, its valuable for everyone. Those prices are information the public can use to make sense of whats coming. If only big institutions get access to these markets, that insight stays locked away. Letting regular folks like me participate makes the forecasts sharper and feels a lot fairer.
I know there are worries about insider trading or manipulation, and I get that those are real concerns. But arent those things already illegal? The CFTC has the power to go after bad actors, just like in any other market. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few cheaters feels like punishing the rest of us who are using these tools honestly. I think you should focus on enforcing the rules you already have instead of broad bans.
I noticed a few of the questions in the ANPR that relate to my thoughts, like Question 8 on whether these markets serve the public interest. I believe they do, by giving us better forecasts than wed get otherwise. Also, Question 15 on defining gaming hits home for me. These contracts arent games of chance, theyre about real-world analysis, and I hope youll see them that way.
Im asking you to regulate prediction markets in a balanced way. Keep them accessible to everyday people, and focus on targeting specific risks without throwing out the whole idea. These markets are too useful to lose.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Porter Young
