Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Diego Molina, and I'm a trader and investor from Pennsylvania. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've used platforms like Kalshi a few times, and I believe these markets provide real value, not just to me but to society as a whole. I want to share my perspective as someone who has directly benefited from them.
Using Kalshi has not only made me some money, but it's also made me more informed about important issues that deserve public discussion. Whether it's predicting election outcomes or economic indicators, I've had to dig into data, read up on policies, and think critically about what might happen. This isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. And the information I get from market prices is often sharper than what I see in polls or news. I believe this kind of democratized access to information helps everyone, not just traders like me.
I'm particularly passionate about the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just for big institutions. They let regular people like me have a stake in understanding and forecasting real-world events. Shutting down or over-restricting these markets would mean cutting off everyday folks from valuable insights while the big players find ways to get that information elsewhere. Plus, regulated platforms like Kalshi are safer than pushing activity to offshore, unregulated sites. We should be encouraging participation under clear rules, not bans.
I also want to highlight how informed trading improves price discovery, which benefits all market participants. When people with knowledge trade, the prices reflect a more accurate picture of what's likely to happen. Academic research backs this up, showing prediction markets often outperform traditional forecasting methods. This ties directly to some of your questions, like Question 29 on whether informed traders aid price discovery. My answer is yes, they absolutely do. Banning these markets over fears of insider trading doesn't make sense when laws already prohibit federal employees and others from trading on nonpublic information. The CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation and fraud. Use those instead of punishing everyone.
Prediction markets also contribute to better public decision-making by making data transparent. The aggregated wisdom in these prices can help policymakers, businesses, and even regular citizens make smarter choices. We need that now more than ever.
I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with rules that address specific risks without broad prohibitions. Don't let a few potential bad actors ruin a system that provides real economic and social benefits. I'm happy to provide more input if needed, and I appreciate the chance to comment.
Sincerely,
Diego Molina
