Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Darrin Wingard, and I'm a trader and investor based in Pennsylvania. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive while addressing legitimate risks.
As someone who trades regularly, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information that's just not available anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome or a major public event, the forecasts on platforms like Kalshi have consistently been more accurate than polls or pundits. I rely on this data to make informed decisions, not just for trading but for understanding the world around me. This isn't just useful for traders like me; it benefits everyone, from journalists to policymakers, by offering clearer insights into whats likely to happen. I believe this ties directly to your questions on public interest, like Question 7, about balancing innovation with consumer protection. The value of better information outweighs the risks if proper safeguards are in place.
I also want to stress that regulated markets are far safer than the alternative. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, have transparency and rules that protect participants. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, people will just turn to unregulated offshore sites with no accountability. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. And on the topic of classification, raised in Questions 15-22, I dont see event contracts as gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and hedging against uncertainty. I put in hours of research before placing a trade, just as I do with stocks or commodities. Calling this "gaming" would be like calling all investing gaming, and thats not fair or accurate.
Another point I care about is the US staying ahead in financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead on something this promising. Prediction markets can position the US as a hub for cutting-edge finance, and Id hate to see us fall behind. Also, regarding Questions 29-32 on inside information, I believe informed trading actually helps. It improves price discovery and makes the markets predictions more accurate, benefiting all participants as long as manipulation is policed using the CFTCs existing tools.
Im not blind to the risks of manipulation or insider trading, but the answer isnt shutting down these markets. You already have the authority to go after bad actors, and thats what should be enforced. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets grow while tackling specific issues with targeted rules. Dont ban or over-restrict something thats proving so valuable to people like me and to society at large.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Darrin Wingard
