Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Roland Meijer, and I'm a business owner from Massachusetts. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide unique value to individuals like me, as well as to society at large, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that encourage their growth rather than restrict them.
As a business owner, I rely on accurate information to make decisions about my company. Prediction markets have consistently provided forecasts that are more reliable than polls or pundits. For instance, during the last election cycle, I used Kalshi to gauge the likelihood of certain policy outcomes that could impact my business taxes and regulations. The market's predictions were spot-on, far better than what I read in the news. This isn't just helpful for me; it benefits everyone by making public decision-making more informed through better price discovery. I think the CFTC should recognize this value when considering regulations, especially in response to questions 7 and 8 about the public interest.
I also want to stress that event contracts are not gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like helping me understand risks and even hedge against them. Trading on these platforms requires research and judgment, just like any other investment. Calling this "gaming" would be a mistake, and I hope the CFTC addresses this distinction clearly in response to questions 15 and 16 about listed activities.
Another concern of mine is safety and fairness. Regulated markets like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore platforms. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, people will just go elsewhere, to places with no oversight. That seems like a worse outcome. I'd rather see the US lead in financial innovation, setting the standard for how prediction markets should work globally. We shouldn't cede this space to other countries. I think this ties directly to questions 7 and 33 about balancing innovation and the broader regulatory framework.
Finally, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets let everyday people like me have a stake in understanding and forecasting public events, from elections to economic indicators. This democratizes access to information that would otherwise be locked away with big institutions. Please don't take that away with overly harsh rules.
I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks, like manipulation or insider trading, which you already have tools to handle. Don't ban or over-restrict these valuable markets. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Roland Meijer
