Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Julie Armstrong, and I'm a citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for about 6 months now, and I believe these markets offer unique value that deserves and proportionate regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions.
I got into prediction markets because they give me access to information about economic and social events that I can't find anywhere else. Unlike polls or news commentary, the prices on these platforms reflect what people actually think will happen, based on where they're willing to put their money. As someone whos not an expert or an insider, I find this incredibly helpful for making sense of complex issues, whether it's an upcoming election or an economic policy change. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like potential shifts in interest rates that could affect my budget. It's not gambling to me; it's a practical tool that takes research and judgment, just like any other investment.
Im worried that over-regulating or banning these markets will push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe. Id much rather trade on a CFTC-registered platform like Kalshi, where there are clear rules and oversight. Shutting down or overly restricting these markets here in the U.S. would just hurt people like me who use them responsibly. Plus, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading. I've read about your existing authority to go after bad actors in other derivatives markets, and I think those same powers can work for event contracts. Theres no need for broad bans when targeted enforcement can address specific problems.
I also want to touch on a couple of questions from your ANPR. Regarding Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think prediction markets are a clear win for innovation. They help with price discovery and give better information to everyone, not just traders. On Question 15 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly believe event contracts arent gaming. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks for individuals and businesses. Classifying them as gambling would be a mistake and ignores how they work in practice.
Finally, I believe informed trading actually improves price accuracy, which benefits everyone. Banning or limiting participation to prevent a few bad actors punishes the majority of us who play by the rules. I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday people like me, and focus on enforcing the laws already in place rather than imposing new restrictions.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Julie Armstrong
