Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alonzo Manzanedo, and I'm a regular citizen from Nevada writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a big-time trader, just someone who believes in the value of fair, regulated markets and the freedom to participate in them. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence and want to see them regulated in a way that lets everyday people like me take part.
I've been frustrated for years with how often polls and pundits get things wrong, whether it's elections, economic shifts, or major events. Prediction markets, from what I've seen, cut through the noise. They seem to produce forecasts that are way more accurate because theyre based on real people putting their money where their mouth is. That kind of information isnt just useful for traders, its valuable for everyone, from regular folks trying to make sense of the world to businesses planning for the future. I want access to that kind of insight, and I think others do too.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are just gambling. To me, theyre not about luck or chance. Theyre about researching, thinking, and making informed guesses about real-world outcomes, much like investing in stocks or other markets. If Im trading on, say, an election result or an economic indicator, Im not rolling dice. Im using my judgment to assess risks and possibilities. That serves a real purpose, especially for hedging against uncertainties that affect my life, like policy changes impacting my costs or job prospects here in Nevada.
I noticed some of the questions in the ANPR, like those in the Public Interest section (Questions 7-14), ask about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I get that there are risks, like manipulation or insider trading, but I believe the CFTC already has tools to handle those issues. Banning or over-restricting these markets isnt the answer. It would just push activity to unregulated, offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Plus, shutting down access for regular people like me feels unfair when big institutions often get to play by different rules.
Im also looking at the questions around defining gaming versus legitimate markets (Questions 15-22). Again, I dont see prediction markets as gaming. Theyre a tool for information and risk management, not a casino game. I urge you to regulate them with that in mind.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, allowing everyday citizens like me to participate in legal, supervised platforms. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Lets keep this innovative tool accessible while addressing specific risks with targeted rules.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Alonzo Manzanedo
