Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Grant Gerbers, and I'm writing to you as an everyday citizen from Hawaii regarding the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their existence under fair and proportionate regulation. I appreciate the chance to share my thoughts on this issue.
I believe prediction markets are incredibly valuable for society, especially when it comes to forecasting events like elections or other public outcomes. From what I've seen, the data these markets produce is often more accurate than traditional polls or pundit opinions. I remember checking a prediction market during the last election cycle, and its probability estimates were much closer to the actual result than most of the news forecasts I read. This kind of accuracy isn't just helpful to traders like me; it benefits everyone by providing clearer information about what's likely to happen. I think academic research backs this up too, showing how these markets aggregate information in ways other methods can't match.
I'm also a firm believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. As an ordinary person, I don't have access to the same insider knowledge or resources that big institutions do. Prediction markets level the playing field a bit, letting regular folks like me engage with real-world events in a meaningful way. I worry that over-restricting these markets or banning broad categories of contracts would shut out people like me while the big players find workarounds. The CFTC should focus on targeted rules that address specific risks, not sweeping prohibitions that punish everyone.
On the topic of informed trading, I think it actually helps the market. When people who know more trade on their knowledge, it makes the prices more accurate, which benefits all participants. Of course, insider trading by federal officials or others with nonpublic information is a concern, but it's already illegal under existing laws. I'd urge the CFTC to enforce those rules rather than limiting the whole market. This ties into some of your questions, like those in Topic E (Questions 29-32) about inside information and price discovery. I believe the solution is better enforcement, not bans.
I also want to touch on data transparency, which matters a lot to me. Prediction markets provide a public good by making their price data available, often for free. This helps journalists, researchers, and regular people understand trends and probabilities better. It's a resource we shouldn't lose due to overly harsh regulation.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support prediction markets with balanced, proportionate rules that tackle real risks without shutting down the benefits. These markets aren't gambling; they're a tool for insight and participation. Please don't over-restrict or ban them. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Grant Gerbers
