Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Javier Barcena, and I'm just a regular guy from Texas who wants to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Im not a lawyer or a big-time investor, just someone whos been trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now. Ive found these platforms incredibly useful, and Im worried that over-restricting them could take away something valuable for people like me.
I support well-regulated prediction markets because they give me, an everyday citizen, a chance to participate in something thats not just for Wall Street. These markets arent gambling, no matter what some might say. When I trade on an event contract, Im doing research, following news, and making informed guesses about elections or other public events. Its no different from studying a company before buying its stock. The information I get from these market prices is often more accurate than polls or pundits. Ive used it to better understand what might happen in elections, and that helps me feel more connected to whats going on in the country.
Whats more, I feel a lot safer trading on a regulated platform like Kalshi, which operates under CFTC oversight, than on some offshore site with no rules. If you clamp down too hard on these markets, people like me wont stop trading. Well just get pushed to unregulated places that are riskier. Id rather see the U.S. take the lead on this kind of financial innovation. Why let other countries set the standard while we fall behind?
Im not saying there arent concerns. I get that some worry about manipulation or insider trading. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues, and I think targeted rules make more sense than broad bans. Dont punish everyone for the actions of a few bad actors. Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 8 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, Id say lets prioritize rules that keep markets fair without shutting them down. And on Question 15, about defining gaming, I strongly believe event contracts arent gaming. Theyre legitimate tools for forecasting and even hedging risks tied to real-world events.
I hope youll consider voices like mine when making your decision. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets that lets regular people participate in safe, legal platforms. Dont over-restrict or ban something thats useful and innovative just because its new.
Thank you for taking the time to read this.
Sincerely,
Javier Barcena
