Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Darius Sutrinaitis, and I'm a finance professional based in Illinois. I'm writing to express my support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've used prediction markets several times myself, and I believe they serve a valuable purpose for individuals like me, as well as for society at large, by providing better information for decision-making and fostering price discovery.
As someone working in finance, I see firsthand how critical accurate information is for making sound decisions. Prediction markets consistently outperform polls and pundits when it comes to forecasting outcomes, whether it's elections, economic indicators, or other significant events. This isn't just useful for traders; it benefits everyone, from policymakers to everyday citizens, who can access insights that are often more reliable than traditional sources. I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, offer a safe and transparent way to engage in these activities, unlike unregulated offshore alternatives that lack accountability.
Im concerned that banning or over-restricting prediction markets would simply push activity to those less safe, offshore platforms. If the US aims to lead in financial innovation, we can't afford to cede this space to other countries. Shutting down or overly limiting these markets doesn't solve problems; it creates new ones by driving participants to environments with no oversight. Instead, I believe the CFTC should focus on proportionate, targeted regulation that addresses specific risks like manipulation or insider trading without resorting to broad categorical bans. Existing laws already prohibit insider trading and market manipulation, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce them. Let's use those rather than punishing everyone for the actions of a few.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. Regarding Questions 7 and 8 under Public Interest, I think prediction markets clearly serve the public by improving price discovery and providing unique data. And on Question 29 under Inside Information, I believe informed trading actually enhances price accuracy, benefiting all participants, as long as its within legal bounds. The focus should be on enforcing existing rules, not creating unnecessary barriers.
Prediction markets aren't gambling; they're a tool for aggregating knowledge and managing uncertainty. I urge the CFTC to craft rules that support their growth under a well-regulated framework. Dont let over-restriction stifle innovation or push activity out of reach of US oversight. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Darius Sutrinaitis
