Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Herb Goshwish, and I'm an everyday citizen from Illinois writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
I started using prediction markets to hedge personal financial risks that affect my day-to-day life. For instance, I've placed trades on election outcomes and economic indicators like CPI numbers because they directly impact my budget, from taxes to grocery costs. This isn't just a game to me; it's a practical tool. I put in time to research and understand the events I'm trading on, much like I would for any investment. That's why I don't see event contracts as gambling. They serve a real economic purpose, helping people like me manage uncertainty in a world full of it.
I'm also worried about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. I've seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and they're nowhere near as safe or transparent as a regulated market like Kalshi. If the U.S. pushes prediction markets underground or out of the country, everyday folks like me lose access to a legitimate tool, and we'll be stuck with riskier alternatives. Regulation, not restriction, is the way to protect consumers. Keep these markets here, under CFTC oversight, where there are rules and accountability.
On a bigger scale, I believe the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead on something this promising. Prediction markets can provide valuable information through price discovery, and informed trading only makes that information better for everyone, not just traders. I think the CFTC's questions, like numbers 7 and 11 on public interest and innovation, get at this balance. I urge you to prioritize fostering growth in this space while addressing risks with targeted rules, not broad bans.
I also want to speak to question 29 about informed traders. Their participation isn't a problem; it's a benefit. When people with good information trade, the market prices get sharper, and that helps everyone make better decisions, whether you're trading or just watching the odds.
In short, I'm asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them legal, regulated, and accessible to regular people like me, under your oversight. That's the best way to protect consumers, encourage innovation, and maintain U.S. leadership in this field.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Herb Goshwish
