Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ricards Cinks, and I'm just a regular citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets are valuable and worth regulating properly, not banning or over-restricting.
I support prediction markets because they provide information that's hard to find anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts often beat out polls or TV pundits when it comes to predicting election outcomes or economic events. This isn't just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone by making better data available. I also use these markets to hedge real risks in my life. For instance, Ive placed trades on election outcomes that could impact my taxes or local business regulations here in Texas. It's not a game to me; it's a practical tool, much like investing in stocks or futures.
I'm also a firm believer that event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and risk management. Classifying them as "gaming" feels wrong when Im putting in research and judgment, just as I would for any other investment. Id urge the CFTC to consider this point seriously, especially in response to Questions 15-22 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
On the flip side, I get that there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues, as seen in other derivatives markets. Instead of broad bans, I think focusing on enforcement with existing rules is the way to go. I also worry that over-restricting prediction markets will push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier for consumers like me. I'd much rather trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi, where theres oversight and accountability. This ties into Questions 7-14 on balancing innovation with consumer protection, and I believe regulation, not prohibition, is the answer.
I want the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets without fear of them being shut down due to a few bad actors. Banning these markets would hurt people like me who use them responsibly. I hope the CFTC will create rules that protect consumers while allowing innovation to continue. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid overly restrictive measures that could drive activity overseas.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Ricards Cinks
