Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Sean Bowe, and I'm an everyday citizen from Massachusetts writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they serve an important purpose that deserves fair and balanced regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions.
I support well-regulated prediction markets because they provide something unique: forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand. During the last election cycle, I checked platforms like Kalshi to get a sense of what might happen, and their predictions were closer to the actual results than most news outlets or surveys. This isn't just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone, from regular folks to journalists and even policymakers, make sense of complex events. It's a public good, plain and simple.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just for big institutions or wealthy insiders. They let people like me have a say and put our knowledge to work. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, you're not protecting us; you're cutting us out of a system that could benefit from our input. Worse, heavy restrictions won't stop prediction markets from existing. They'll just push activity to offshore platforms with no oversight, no consumer protections, and no accountability to U.S. laws. That seems like a step backward to me.
I'm aware of the concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are serious issues. But the CFTC already has tools to address fraud and abuse in other markets, and those can be applied here. Shutting down or overly limiting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few. I'd urge you to consider specific safeguards instead of broad bans.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I want to touch on a couple that stand out to me. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by fostering useful forecasting while keeping things under the CFTC's watch. And on Question 15, regarding defining legitimate markets, I believe election and public event contracts aren't gambling; they're a form of informed analysis, much like trading stocks based on company performance.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them legal, accessible, and under proper oversight so people like me can continue to participate safely and contribute to better public information.
Thank you for considering my comments.
Sincerely,
Sean Bowe
