Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Steve Molloy, and I'm a trader and investor from Missouri. I've been trading in various markets for years, and I've used prediction markets a few times to gain insight into events that affect my financial decisions. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that protect consumers without shutting down access to these innovative tools.
As someone whos dipped into prediction markets, Ive seen firsthand how they offer information you cant get from polls or news outlets. The prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced wisdom, and thats helped me make better decisions about risks tied to political or economic events. Im not some big institution with insider access; Im just a regular guy trying to navigate uncertainty. Prediction markets level the playing field by letting everyday people like me participate. Banning or over-restricting them would only push this activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier for consumers. Id much rather trade on a regulated market like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, where there are clear rules and protections in place.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those are valid worries. But the answer isnt to ban entire categories of contracts or lock out regular traders. The CFTC already has tools to combat market manipulation and enforce laws against insider trading. Use those. Craft targeted regulations that address specific risks instead of broad prohibitions that punish everyone. I also believe informed trading isnt a problem; its a benefit. When people with knowledge trade, it makes the prices more accurate, and that helps everyone, not just the traders. This ties directly to Question 29 in your ANPR about whether informed traders aid price discovery. My view is clear: they do, and thats a public good.
I value my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets arent gambling; they take research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Theyre a tool for understanding the world and managing risk. In response to Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the CFTC can achieve both by regulating proportionately, ensuring safety without stifling access.
Im asking you to support rules that allow prediction markets to operate under fair, targeted oversight. Dont let heavy-handed restrictions drive activity offshore or exclude regular people like me from participating. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Steve Molloy
