Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Shena Manzo, and I'm a regular citizen from Florida writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've been following their growth with interest, and I strongly support their development under fair and thoughtful regulation by the CFTC.
I believe prediction markets offer something unique: information that's often more accurate than polls or pundits, especially on elections and big public events. As someone who tries to stay informed, I think having access to better data helps not just traders, but all of us who want to understand what's really happening. It's frustrating when traditional sources get things wrong, and I see these markets as a tool for clearer insight. Plus, I value the freedom to participate in a legal, regulated space. I don't think this should be limited to big institutions. Regular people like me should have a chance to engage, and that openness makes the information in these markets stronger.
I'm also concerned about safety, though. I've read about offshore platforms where there's no oversight, and that seems risky for consumers. That's why I think regulated markets, like Kalshi operating under CFTC rules, are the way to go. If we push this activity underground by over-restricting, people will just turn to less safe options. Regulation keeps things transparent and protects users. On that note, I know there are worries about manipulation or insider trading. But aren't those already illegal? From what I understand, the CFTC has solid tools to tackle fraud and abuse in other markets. I trust you can adapt those same powers here without needing to ban or overly limit prediction markets.
I also think the US should be a leader in this space. Financial innovation is important, and if we clamp down too hard, other countries will step in and take the lead. We can't let that happen. Addressing some of the specific questions in the ANPR, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe the balance should tip toward supporting innovation while protecting consumers through regulation, not prohibition. And on Topic Area E regarding inside information (Questions 29-32), I think the focus should be on enforcing existing laws rather than restricting entire markets.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them safe and accessible for people like me who see their value for better information and fair participation. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Shena Manzo
