Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Thomas Marecki, and I'm a regular citizen from New Jersey writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather public input before drafting rules, and I want to explain why I think these markets are valuable and deserve balanced regulation.
As someone who isn't a financial expert or big investor, I find prediction markets incredibly useful. They give me access to information I can't get from polls or news pundits. I've noticed time and again that the prices on these platforms are often more accurate when it comes to forecasting elections or major public events. That benefits everyone, not just traders like me, because it means better information is out there for decision-making. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, I've traded on contracts tied to economic indicators like CPI data, which helps me plan around potential impacts on my budget for rent and groceries. This isn't gambling to me; it takes research and judgment, just like any other investment.
Im also concerned about the idea of classifying event contracts as gaming, which I see raised in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR. These contracts serve real economic purposes, like hedging and price discovery, and shouldn't be lumped in with betting or lotteries. Calling them gaming feels like a misstep that could unfairly restrict access. Plus, allowing regular people like me to participate makes the markets fairer and the prices more accurate. If only big institutions can trade, all the good info stays with them. On top of that, I believe informed trading, as discussed in Questions 29-32, actually improves price discovery. Even if some traders have better info, that helps the market reflect reality, which benefits us all.
Another big worry for me is pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms. I've traded on both regulated markets like Kalshi and offshore ones like Polymarket, and the difference in safety and transparency is night and day. Regulated markets under CFTC oversight, as touched on in Questions 7-14 about public interest, are far better for consumer protection. Banning or over-restricting these markets here in the US would just drive people like me to riskier venues. And honestly, the US should be leading in financial innovation, not letting other countries take the reins.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But those are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to tackle bad actors without shutting down entire markets. I urge you to focus on proportionate rules that address specific risks rather than broad bans. Please support the growth of regulated prediction markets so everyday folks like me can keep benefiting from them safely.
Thank you for considering my views.
Sincerely,
Thomas Marecki
