Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Gregory Gutman, and I'm a software engineer based in Florida. Im writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they offer real value to individuals like me, as well as to society at large. I want to urge the CFTC to craft rules that protect consumers without stifling innovation or pushing activity to less safe, offshore platforms.
As someone in tech, Im drawn to systems that aggregate information efficiently, and prediction markets do exactly that. Ive seen firsthand how their forecasts often beat out polls or pundits when it comes to predicting events like elections or economic shifts. This isnt just trivia. Its data that helps people make better decisions, whether its a business planning for regulatory changes or someone like me trying to understand the likelihood of policies that impact my work in tech. Academic research backs this up, showing how these markets improve transparency and data quality. I think the CFTC should consider this public benefit, as raised in Questions 7 and 8 under the Public Interest section.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, offer a safe space to trade event contracts, whether its hedging against risks like policy changes that could affect my freelance projects or just engaging with issues I care about. Banning or over-restricting these markets wont stop people from participating. Itll just drive us to unregulated offshore sites with no protections. Id much rather see the US lead in financial innovation, setting a global standard for how these markets should work, rather than cede that role to other countries. This ties into Questions 23 and 24 on procedural aspects, where I support a framework that evaluates markets individually for public interest, not blanket prohibitions.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, as noted in Questions 29 through 32. But I believe informed trading often improves price discovery, making markets more accurate for everyone. Existing laws already ban insider trading by federal officials, and the CFTC has tools to tackle manipulation. Lets not punish law-abiding participants by shutting down entire markets over the actions of a few bad actors. Instead, focus on targeted enforcement.
Prediction markets arent gambling. Theyre a tool for hedging real risks and understanding the world better. I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets accessible and safe, without overly restrictive rules that could harm innovation or push activity offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Gregory Gutman
