Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Michael Ward, and I'm a trader and investor based in Nevada. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations rather than overly restrictive rules or bans.
As someone who trades regularly, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer unique information and opportunities that you just cant find elsewhere. They're not gambling, no matter how some might label them. Trading on these platforms requires research, analysis, and judgment about real-world events, much like trading stocks or commodities. For instance, Ive used markets on Kalshi to hedge risks tied to economic data releases that impact my investments. If a CPI report could sway my portfolio, having a way to offset that uncertainty is a legitimate economic tool, not a game. I think the CFTC should recognize this in addressing questions like 15 and 16 about defining gaming versus legitimate market activity.
I also worry about what happens if the U.S. over-restricts these markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If we ban or limit access here, people like me will just go elsewhere, to places with no consumer protections. Thats not a solution; its a step backward. On top of that, the U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not handing the advantage to other countries. I hope the CFTC considers this when looking at questions 7 and 8 on balancing innovation with public interest.
Another point I feel strongly about is that informed trading isnt a problem; its a benefit. When people with knowledge trade, it makes prices more accurate, which helps everyone, not just traders. Banning markets because of insider trading concerns, which are already illegal, feels like punishing the wrong people. Existing laws and CFTC authority can handle bad actors without broad categorical bans. This ties directly to questions 29 and 30 on inside information and price discovery, and I think the focus should be on targeted enforcement, not prohibition.
Prediction markets are a tool for regular folks like me to participate in fair, legal, regulated spaces. They help hedge real risks and provide insights that benefit society. I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without stifling innovation or pushing activity offshore. Lets keep the U.S. at the forefront of this space.
Sincerely,
Michael Ward
