Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mihai Bantos, and I'm a trader and investor based in Illinois. I've been active in various financial markets for years, and I've used prediction markets a few times to inform my decisions and hedge risks. I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that encourage innovation while protecting consumers.
As a trader, I rely on accurate information to make decisions, and prediction markets have consistently offered insights that I can't find in polls or punditry. Whether it's forecasting election outcomes or other public events, the aggregated wisdom in these markets often cuts through noise and bias. This isn't just useful for me; better price discovery benefits everyone, from individual investors to policymakers who need reliable data for public decision-making. I also see prediction markets as a tool for hedging personal and business financial risks, like protecting against policy changes or economic shifts that could impact my investments.
I'm particularly concerned about the alternative if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. Regulated platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If access is limited here, activity will simply move to less transparent, riskier venues outside U.S. jurisdiction. That hurts consumers and undermines the CFTC's mission. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. We have a chance to set the global standard for prediction markets, and I hope we take it.
I also want to address concerns about manipulation and insider trading, which I know the CFTC is focused on in Questions 1-6 and 29-32 of the ANPR. The reality is, the CFTC already has strong tools to combat these issues in other derivatives markets. Those same mechanisms can be applied here. Banning or overly restricting prediction markets to address a few bad actors punishes the majority of honest participants. Plus, informed trading often improves price discovery, benefiting all of us in the market, as long as it's done legally.
I urge the CFTC to develop proportionate regulations that address specific risks without stifling the potential of prediction markets. Keep these markets accessible to everyday traders like me, under clear and fair rules, and maintain U.S. leadership in financial innovation. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Mihai Bantos
