Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mark Yokoi, and I'm just a regular citizen from Nevada writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've been following their growth with interest, and I strongly support their development under fair, sensible regulation by the CFTC.
I believe prediction markets offer something unique that we don't get from polls or pundits. I've seen how often traditional forecasts get things wrong, especially around elections or big public events. Prediction markets, from what I've read, cut through the noise and give more accurate signals because they aggregate what people actually think, backed by real money. That kind of information isn't just useful for traders; it helps everyone, from regular folks like me to policymakers trying to understand public sentiment. I think it's a shame if we don't let this tool grow.
Beyond forecasting, I see these markets as a way for everyday people to manage personal or business risks. For example, if an election outcome could impact my taxes or a local regulation could hit my small side hustle, having a way to hedge that uncertainty feels practical, not speculative. I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. If only big institutions get access, the benefits stay locked away from the rest of us. I'm all for consumer protection, but I think the answer is strong oversight, not bans. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC rules, are a safer bet than unregulated offshore sites. If we over-restrict or shut these markets down, people will just go elsewhere, to shadier places with no protections. That seems like the opposite of protecting consumers.
I also worry about the US falling behind. We should be leading in financial innovation, not handing the advantage to other countries. Prediction markets aren't gambling in my view; they're about real economic purposes like price discovery and risk management. Classifying them as "gaming" feels like a misstep when you look at the research. I've read studies showing how these markets improve information transparency, and that data should matter to regulators.
On some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to weigh in on a few points. Regarding Questions 7 to 14 on public interest, I think the balance tips toward innovation with proper safeguards, not heavy-handed limits. On Questions 15 to 22 about listed activities, I urge you not to lump event contracts in with gaming; they serve a different role. And for Questions 23 to 28 on procedures, I hope determinations prioritize keeping legitimate markets accessible over broad prohibitions.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them safe and open for regular people like me, under your oversight, so we don't lose this tool to offshore alternatives or miss out on its benefits. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Mark Yokoi
