Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Luis Lopez, and I'm a student from Massachusetts. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
As a student, I don't have a huge budget, but I find prediction markets incredibly useful. They help me hedge against financial risks that affect my life, like changes in interest rates or election outcomes that could impact student loan policies. Beyond that, these markets give me a way to participate in something meaningful. They're not just a game to me; they're a tool to understand the world better and make informed decisions. I also believe the forecasts from these markets are often more accurate than what I see from polls or pundits on TV. I've noticed this myself when tracking election predictions or economic indicators, and it's valuable information that benefits everyone, not just traders.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those are valid worries. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues in other markets, and I think those can be applied here too. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't solve the problem; it will just push people like me to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier. I've used Kalshi, and knowing it's regulated under CFTC oversight makes me feel much safer. We should be encouraging more of that, not less.
I'm also concerned about labeling event contracts as "gaming." That doesn't match my experience. Trading on these platforms takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. It's not a gamble; it's a legitimate way to hedge risks and contribute to price discovery. Addressing specific questions in the ANPR, like those in Topic C (Questions 15-22), I urge the CFTC to define these contracts based on their economic purpose, not as gambling. And in response to Topic B (Questions 7-14), I believe the public interest is best served by fostering innovation. The US should be a leader in financial markets like these, not fall behind other countries by clamping down.
I know regulation is necessary, and I'm all for rules that protect consumers. But please don't shut down or overly restrict prediction markets. They're a powerful tool for people like me, and with the right oversight, they can thrive safely. I ask that the CFTC focus on proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without punishing the many for the actions of a few.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Luis Lopez
