Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Wismer, and I'm a regular citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these markets to thrive under fair oversight.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about elections and other public events. Polls and pundits often get it wrong, but the prices on these markets cut through the noise. They're based on what people are actually willing to bet, not just opinions or guesses. I've seen firsthand how these markets often predict outcomes more accurately than traditional sources. That kind of insight isn't just helpful for traders like me; it's valuable for anyone trying to make sense of the world, from journalists to policymakers. I think that's a public good worth protecting.
I'm also concerned about any moves to label event contracts as "gaming" or gambling. I don't see it that way at all. When I trade on these platforms, I'm doing research, weighing probabilities, and making informed decisions about real-world events. That's no different from trading stocks or commodities. These contracts serve a real economic purpose, whether it's helping me hedge against uncertainty or contributing to price discovery that benefits everyone. Classifying them as gambling would be a mistake and could shut out regular people like me from participating.
Another thing that worries me is the risk of the US falling behind. Prediction markets are a form of financial innovation, and if we over-regulate or ban them, we'll just push this activity offshore to less safe, unregulated platforms. I'd much rather see the US lead the way by setting smart, balanced rules that keep markets fair and transparent. I also believe that informed trading, even by people with unique knowledge, makes prices more accurate. That helps everyone, not just the traders. Banning markets to stop a few bad actors doesn't solve the problem; it just punishes the rest of us.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the CFTC can do both by focusing on transparency and enforcing existing laws against manipulation. On Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe informed traders often improve price discovery, and the focus should be on punishing illegal behavior, not restricting markets.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or overly restrict them. They're a powerful tool for forecasting, economic utility, and civic engagement, and with the right oversight, they can benefit all of us.
Sincerely,
John Wismer
