Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Glen Carpenter, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Florida writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've dabbled in prediction markets a few times, and I find them fun. But more than that, I think they're valuable and worth supporting with fair regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions.
I participate in prediction markets because they give me a chance to engage with big public events, like elections, in a way that feels meaningful. I've noticed their forecasts often beat out polls or TV pundits. That accuracy isn't just interesting to me; it's useful to everyone who wants a clearer picture of what's coming. I also believe that letting regular folks like me take part in these markets is a good thing. Its not gambling. It takes research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels off to me since they serve real purposes, like helping people understand risks or even hedge against them.
I'm all for regulated markets like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight. They feel safe and transparent compared to unregulated offshore platforms. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts prediction markets, I worry itll just push people like me to those shadier options where theres no protection at all. Thats not a solution. Instead, I think the CFTC should focus on proportionate rules that target specific problems without throwing out the whole idea of prediction markets. You already have strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets. I trust those can work here too.
Id like to touch on a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think prediction markets are innovative and helpful, and regulation should support that while keeping bad actors in check. And on Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly feel event contracts arent just bets. Theyre about real-world information and economic value, not luck.
I hope the CFTC will support prediction markets with fair, targeted rules. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Let people like me keep participating in a legal, regulated space where we can engage with the world in a unique way. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Glen Carpenter
