Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brice Banner, and I'm a trader and investor based in Illinois. I've been active in financial markets for years, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive used these markets to manage risk, and I believe they provide unique value to individuals like me, as well as to society at large.
Prediction markets arent just a niche tool for a few traders. They produce information thats often more accurate than polls or pundits when it comes to forecasting elections and other public events. Ive seen this firsthand; the probabilities on these platforms have consistently been closer to the mark than what I hear on the news. This kind of insight helps me make better decisions, not just in trading but in planning my financial future. I think that benefits everyone, from regular folks to policymakers who could use better data for decision-making.
On a personal level, I rely on prediction markets for hedging risks that affect me directly. Whether its an election outcome that might shift tax policies or a Federal Reserve decision that could impact interest rates, these markets let me offset potential losses. Its not gambling. Its about protecting myself with careful research and judgment, much like I do with stocks or commodities. I know businesses use these tools too, like farmers hedging against policy changes or importers managing tariff risks. This is real economic utility, not a game.
Im concerned that banning or over-restricting prediction markets would push activity offshore to unregulated platforms. Id much rather trade on a CFTC-regulated market like Kalshi, where there are protections in place, than be forced to use some sketchy foreign site with no oversight. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. Weve got the expertise and the regulatory framework to do this right.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B (Questions 7-14) on public interest and price discovery, I believe prediction markets clearly serve the public by aggregating information efficiently. And on Topic Area D (Questions 23-28) about procedural aspects, I urge you to avoid categorical bans and instead focus on case-by-case oversight to address specific risks without killing innovation.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading. But those are already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce against bad actors. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few cheaters punishes honest participants like me. Please dont go down that road. I strongly encourage the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, ensuring they remain accessible while tackling specific risks with targeted rules.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Brice Banner
