Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jack Szumowsmi, and I'm a finance professional based in New York. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to using prediction markets, but I've quickly come to see their value, both for the information they provide and, honestly, for the fun of participating. I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and urge the CFTC to avoid banning or over-restricting them.
As someone in finance, I rely on accurate data to make decisions. Prediction markets have consistently proven to be better at forecasting outcomes, like elections or other public events, than traditional polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand in tracking recent political events, where market prices cut through the noise and gave a clearer picture than any news outlet. This isn't just useful for me; it's valuable for the public and even for policymakers who need reliable signals. I believe this ties directly to your questions in Topic B, particularly Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection, and Question 9 on price discovery. Prediction markets are an innovative tool that should be encouraged, not stifled.
I also value the freedom to participate in these legal, regulated spaces. The government already has its hands in too much of our lives. Let people have some room to make their own choices. Sure, some will make money and others will lose it, but that's what freedom looks like. The CFTC already has strong tools to handle manipulation and insider trading, as you discuss in Topic A, Question 1, and Topic E, Question 29. Use those tools instead of imposing heavy-handed restrictions. Banning or over-regulating these markets won't stop people from trading; it'll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which is far worse for everyone.
Another point I want to stress is that event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks or discovering prices, as you explore in Topic C, Question 15. Calling this "gaming" is like calling stock trading gaming. It takes research and judgment, not luck. Plus, informed trading, even if it's by people with better insights, improves price discovery for all of us. That's a net positive, not a problem.
I get that there are concerns about fairness or manipulation, but the answer isn't to shut these markets down. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few bad actors makes no sense. Instead, focus on targeted rules to address specific risks. I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible while ensuring they're safe and transparent. Let's keep the US as a leader in financial innovation, not cede that to other countries.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jack Szumowsmi
