Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Antonio Lopez, and I'm a trader and investor from Texas. I've spent years following financial news closely, analyzing markets, and making decisions based on the best information I can find. I'm relatively new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their development under fair, well-thought-out regulation. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to share why I believe these markets are valuable and why the CFTC should regulate them proportionately rather than overly restrict or ban them.
As someone who tracks financial trends, I see prediction markets as a unique tool for getting information that's often more accurate than polls or pundit opinions. I've seen firsthand how traditional forecasts can miss the mark, and I believe these markets aggregate real-world insights in a way nothing else does. This benefits not just traders like me, but the public, businesses, and even policymakers who need reliable data for decision-making. Beyond that, these markets offer a practical way to hedge real risks. Whether it's an election outcome affecting tax policy or a Federal Reserve decision impacting my investments, having a regulated space to manage uncertainty is incredibly useful.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi, which are far safer than unregulated offshore platforms. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, activity will just move to less transparent venues, which helps no one. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. I'm confident the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading, as they do in other derivatives markets. Let's not punish everyone by shutting down a valuable tool because of a few potential bad actors. And on the point of classification, I don't see event contracts as gambling. They serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery, much like other investments I make.
Specifically addressing some of your questions, on Public Interest (Questions 7-14), I urge you to prioritize innovation while protecting consumers through targeted rules, not broad bans. On Listed Activities (Questions 15-22), please avoid labeling these contracts as gaming when they have clear economic value. And on Inside Information (Questions 29-32), I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting all participants, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Focus on specific risks with tailored solutions rather than categorical restrictions. Let's keep these markets accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the U.S.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Antonio Lopez
