Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Andreas Sondergaard, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I want to share why I think theyre valuable, both for me personally and for society as a whole.
As someone who trades regularly, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights you just can't get from polls or pundits. Whether its an election outcome or a major public event, the prices on these platforms often cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of whats likely to happen. Ive used this information to make better decisions in my own investments, and I believe this kind of forecasting power helps everyone, from regular folks to policymakers, understand the world a bit better. Its not gambling; its about aggregating real knowledge through market signals.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight. These platforms are transparent and safe, unlike unregulated offshore sites where theres no accountability. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts prediction markets, I worry that activity will just move to those less secure venues. Id much rather see the US lead the way in financial innovation, setting a global standard for how these markets should work, instead of ceding that role to other countries. We have a chance to get this right.
Another point I want to stress is how prediction markets help hedge real risks. For example, Ive used them to offset uncertainties around election outcomes that could impact tax policies or regulations affecting my portfolio. Businesses do this too, hedging against political or economic shifts. This isnt just speculation; its practical risk management.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think regulation should focus on transparency and preventing manipulation, not broad prohibitions. On Question 15, about defining legitimate markets versus gaming, I believe prediction markets serve a clear economic purpose through price discovery and hedging, and shouldnt be lumped in with gambling. And for Question 29 on inside information, I agree that informed traders can improve price accuracy, but existing laws against insider trading should be enforced rather than banning entire markets.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Lets keep these markets safe, accessible, and innovative right here in the US.
Sincerely,
Andreas Sondergaard
