Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jeff Kircos, and I'm an everyday citizen from California with a background in molecular biology. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm fairly new to these markets, but I've already seen their value in keeping me informed and connected to cutting-edge topics, and I believe they serve an important purpose for society.
As someone with a science background, I find prediction markets incredibly useful for staying up to date on the latest research. They don't just give me a window into new developments in fields like biology; they also show me what the public thinks about these advancements. This kind of insight is hard to get from traditional news or even academic journals. Beyond science, I've noticed how prediction markets often produce forecasts on elections and public events that are more accurate than polls or pundits. That kind of information benefits everyone, not just traders like me. It's about better decision-making for all of us, whether we're voting or just trying to understand the world.
I strongly believe that regulated platforms, like Kalshi, are a much safer option than unregulated offshore markets. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans prediction markets, people won't stop trading; they'll just move to less secure venues outside U.S. oversight. That seems like a step backward. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. Plus, the CFTC already has strong tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Those can work here too, without resorting to heavy-handed restrictions.
I also want to address a point from your questions, specifically Question 15 on defining "gaming" versus legitimate markets. Prediction markets aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and hedging, and they take research and judgment, much like any other investment. Classifying them as gaming would be a mistake. And on Question 29 about inside information, I think informed trading actually improves price discovery. It makes the market's predictions more accurate, which helps everyone.
Finally, prediction markets tap into the wisdom of crowds, keeping the public informed on all sorts of issues. An informed public is never a bad thing. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows these markets to thrive while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Don't ban or over-restrict them and push activity offshore.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Respectfully,
Jeff T Kircos
