Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Leon Works, and I'm writing from Arkansas as an everyday citizen and a disabled veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've taken an interest in them because I believe they can provide better information for public decision-making. I'm reaching out in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516, to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets.
As someone who served our country, I value systems that help us make informed choices, whether it's in policy or personal life. Prediction markets seem to me like a powerful tool for cutting through noise and getting to real, useful data. I've seen how polls and pundits often miss the mark, but these markets aggregate what people actually think and know, turning it into prices that can guide decisions. That's not just helpful for traders; it's helpful for everyone who needs to understand what's coming, from regular folks like me to policymakers.
I'm also concerned about what happens if we over-restrict or ban these markets. If the U.S. clamps down too hard, people won't just stop trading; they'll go to offshore platforms with no oversight. I've seen enough in my time to know that pushing things underground doesn't solve problems, it makes them worse. Regulated markets, like those under CFTC oversight, are safer and more transparent. We should keep activity here where it can be watched and protected, not drive it away.
Another point I want to raise is about informed trading. I understand there are worries about insider information, but I think traders who know more and bring that to the market actually make prices more accurate. That benefits everyone, not just them. It's like having a sharper map in a tough terrain; we all get a clearer picture. I believe the CFTC already has tools to handle bad actors, and I'd point to questions 29 and 30 in your ANPR about insider trading and price discovery. My view is that the focus should be on enforcing existing rules against abuse, not restricting the whole market.
I know there are risks to weigh, like manipulation or unfair advantages. But shutting down prediction markets to avoid a few bad apples feels like punishing the many for the sins of the few. Let's not throw out a good tool just because it needs some guardrails.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them accessible to everyday people like me, and make sure the U.S. leads in this space rather than cedes it to others. Thank you for considering my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Leon Works
