Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jack Fanshawe, and Im a trader and investor based in New York. Ive been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge you to craft rules that protect participants without stifling innovation.
As someone who trades regularly, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer unique insights you cant get from polls or pundits. The prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced information, and Ive used them to make informed decisions about economic events that affect my investments, like hedging against policy changes or inflation data releases. This isnt gambling, despite what some might say. It takes research, analysis, and judgment, just like trading stocks or futures. Classifying event contracts as gaming (as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR) ignores their legitimate economic purpose, whether its price discovery or hedging risk. I think its critical that the CFTC recognizes this distinction and avoids treating these markets as mere games of chance.
I also believe that informed trading, even by those with specialized knowledge, improves price accuracy and benefits everyone in the market. On the flip side, I understand concerns about insider trading or manipulation (like in Questions 29-32). But the answer isnt to ban or over-restrict these markets. The CFTC already has powerful tools to combat fraud and manipulation in other derivatives markets, and those can be applied here. Plus, laws already prohibit federal employees and others from trading on nonpublic information. Lets enforce whats on the books instead of punishing honest participants with broad categorical bans.
Im worried that over-regulation or outright prohibitions will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, where theres no oversight at all. Id much rather trade on a CFTC-regulated market like Kalshi, where there are clear rules and protections. Banning or severely limiting these markets doesnt solve problems, it creates worse ones. I hope youll consider proportionate, targeted regulation instead, as mentioned in Questions 7-14 about balancing innovation and consumer protection.
Prediction markets give regular people like me a chance to participate in a fair, transparent system. They democratize access to information and let us have a stake in understanding the world around us. Im asking you to support rules that allow these markets to thrive under sensible oversight. Dont let heavy-handed restrictions shut out honest traders or drive innovation overseas.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jack Fanshawe
