Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Wesley Stinde, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Montana writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support regulating them in a way that keeps them accessible, safe, and innovative for people like me.
Ive always been frustrated by how often polls and pundits get things wrong, especially around elections or big public events. Prediction markets, on the other hand, seem to cut through the noise. The prices reflect what people actually think will happen, based on real money and real research. Ive seen this firsthand when I placed a few small trades on platforms like Kalshi to gauge election outcomes. That kind of accurate forecasting isnt just helpful for me; its valuable for everyone, from regular folks to policymakers who need better data to make decisions. Its about price discovery, giving us information we cant get anywhere else.
I also believe that regulated markets are the way to go. Id much rather use a CFTC-registered platform like Kalshi, where there are rules and oversight, than be pushed toward some shady offshore site with no protections. Regulation isnt just about consumer safety; its about keeping the US competitive. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, were handing the future of financial innovation to other countries. America should be leading on this, not falling behind.
Another thing that matters to me is the freedom to participate in legal markets. Prediction markets arent just for big institutions. They let regular people like me have a stake in understanding and hedging against real risks. For instance, Ive thought about using them to offset uncertainties tied to policies that could affect my taxes or cost of living here in Montana. Its not gambling; its a practical tool. And when informed traders participate, it only makes the prices sharper, which benefits everyone in the market.
Id like to address a few of the specific questions in your ANPR. On Question 7 under Public Interest, I believe prediction markets serve the public good through better forecasting and risk management, and the CFTC should balance innovation with targeted consumer protections. On Question 29 under Inside Information, I think informed trading generally improves price discovery, and existing laws against insider trading should be enforced rather than banning entire markets. And on Question 15 under Listed Activities, I urge you not to lump these contracts under gaming. Theyre legitimate tools for hedging and information.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep them accessible and safe under CFTC oversight so people like me can continue to benefit from them. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Wesley Stinde
