Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Juan Rodriguez, and I'm a regular citizen from Missouri. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the CFTC creating a well-regulated framework for prediction markets rather than banning or over-restricting them.
Ive found prediction markets to be incredibly valuable, not just for me but for society as a whole. The forecasts they produce often beat polls or pundits by a wide margin. Ive seen this firsthand when trading on election outcomes or economic indicators; the prices reflect real, crowd-sourced wisdom that you just cant find elsewhere. This isnt gambling, in my view. Its about researching events, analyzing data, and making informed decisions, much like trading stocks. These markets also help individuals and businesses hedge real risks. For example, Ive used them to offset uncertainty around policy changes that could impact my personal finances. Calling this gaming misses the economic purpose behind it.
Beyond my own experience, I believe prediction markets provide better information for public decision-making. They aggregate data transparently, and academic research backs this up, showing how they improve price discovery. I also think theyre a great tool for young people like my cousins to learn about risk and trading in a controlled, low-stakes way before jumping into heavier investments. Its a practical education with minimal consequences.
I understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but I dont think the answer is heavy-handed restrictions. The CFTC already has tools to address bad actors, and regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore platforms. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, people will just go elsewhere, to less safe venues. The US should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Im all for proportionate regulation that targets specific risks without throwing out the whole concept. Broad categorical bans would punish regular folks like me who use these markets responsibly.
Id like to address a few specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by offering transparency and oversight while still allowing new ideas to flourish. On Question 15, regarding defining gaming, I urge you to recognize that event contracts serve legitimate purposes like hedging and shouldnt be lumped in with gambling. Finally, on Question 23, I believe public interest determinations should focus on ensuring fair access to these markets, not shutting them down.
I respectfully ask the CFTC to support a balanced, targeted regulatory framework for prediction markets. Lets keep them accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the US.
Sincerely,
Juan Rodriguez
