Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Curtis Watson, a software engineer from New Hampshire. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to help accelerate my path to retirement, I believe these markets provide unique value to individuals like me and to society as a whole. I want to share why I think proportionate regulation, not bans or over-restrictions, is the right approach.
As a tech professional, I'm drawn to prediction markets because they aggregate information in ways that no poll or pundit can match. I've used them to make informed decisions, putting in the research and judgment to trade on events that impact my financial future, like economic policy changes or interest rate decisions. This isn't gambling, it's a skill-based process, much like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" ignores their legitimate economic purpose, whether it's price discovery or hedging real risks. For instance, I've hedged against potential tax policy shifts that could affect my income and savings plans. These markets let regular people like me manage uncertainty in a way that's fair and accessible.
I also believe the U.S. should lead in financial innovation. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than regulated markets like Kalshi. I've traded on both types of platforms, and the transparency and oversight of a CFTC-registered market make a huge difference. Pushing participants offshore doesn't protect anyone, it just cedes control and innovation to other countries. On the flip side, supporting regulated markets keeps the U.S. competitive and ensures accountability.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I think prediction markets clearly benefit society through better forecasting and risk management. Academic research backs this up, showing how these markets improve data transparency and accuracy. As for concerns about insider trading or manipulation raised in Topic E (Questions 29-32), I agree those are risks, but informed trading often improves price discovery for everyone. Existing laws already prohibit insider trading and manipulation, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce them. Targeted rules, not broad bans, are the answer.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't shut down or over-restrict a valuable tool for individuals and businesses. Keep these markets safe and accessible under CFTC oversight, and let the U.S. stay a leader in financial innovation.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Curtis Watson
