Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Michael DePolis, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
As someone who trades on these platforms, I've seen firsthand how useful they are. The prices often give better information than polls or pundits, especially on things like elections or big public events. That kind of insight helps me make smarter decisions, whether it's about my personal finances or just understanding what's happening in the world. I also use these markets to hedge real risks. For example, I've placed trades on economic indicators like CPI numbers because they affect my budget for rent and groceries here in Texas. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Labeling event contracts as "gaming" doesn't make sense when they serve legitimate purposes like price discovery and risk management.
I'm aware of concerns like insider trading or market manipulation, but I don't think banning or heavily restricting these markets is the answer. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle bad actors, and laws already prohibit federal employees from trading on nonpublic information. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few cheaters would punish regular folks like me who use them responsibly. Plus, if you over-restrict here, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than a CFTC-registered market like Kalshi. I'd rather see proportionate rules that target specific risks without broad bans.
I also want to touch on a few of your questions from the ANPR. On Questions 7 to 14 about public interest, I believe prediction markets balance innovation and consumer protection by giving ordinary people access to valuable information while operating under oversight. On Questions 15 to 22 about listed activities, I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming; they have real economic uses. And on Questions 29 to 32 about inside information, I think informed trading actually improves price discovery and benefits everyone, as long as existing laws against insider abuse are enforced.
The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation with prediction markets. We shouldn't cede that to other countries by over-regulating. I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets safe and accessible for regular people like me, without broad restrictions or categorical bans that push activity offshore.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Michael DePolis
