Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alan Rosales, and I'm a student from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've had some personal experience with prediction markets, having used them a few times to better understand real-world events, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated markets that allow everyday people like me to participate.
As a student, I value the chance to engage with tools that help me learn about economics, politics, and how information shapes decisions. Prediction markets are unique because they provide insights you can't get from polls or news outlets. I've used platforms like Kalshi to follow events that impact my life, like election outcomes or economic policy changes, and it's been eye-opening to see how collective predictions often beat so-called expert opinions. I believe these markets aren't just for traders; they help everyone by creating better information. Shutting them down or over-restricting them would take away a resource that benefits society as a whole.
What worries me most is the idea of banning or heavily limiting these markets, which could push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. I've read about how some people turn to overseas sites when they can't access legal options here. Those sites don't have the oversight or protections that a CFTC-regulated market like Kalshi offers. If the goal is to protect consumers, then regulation, not restriction, is the answer. Keeping these markets legal and under your supervision ensures transparency and safety for participants like me. Driving them offshore just makes things riskier for everyone.
I also want to address a concern I know the CFTC has raised in Questions 7 and 8 of the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I get that there are risks, like potential manipulation or misuse of information. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues, just as you do with other financial markets. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets because of a few bad actors feels like punishing the majority of us who use them responsibly.
I urge you to focus on proportionate rules that address specific risks without shutting down access. Let students, small traders, and regular citizens keep participating in regulated prediction markets. Don't push this activity into the shadows by over-regulating or banning it. Thank you for considering my perspective, and I hope you'll support a framework that keeps these markets accessible and safe under CFTC oversight.
Sincerely,
Alan Rosales
