Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Gage Russell, and I'm a student from New York. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, published in the Federal Register as 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I want to share why I believe prediction markets deserve fair and proportionate regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions or bans.
I've been trading on prediction markets for a while now, and I can tell you they aren't gambling, no matter what some might say. They serve a real purpose. I put in time to research events, read up on data, and make informed decisions, just like someone trading stocks or commodities. It's not a roll of the dice; it's about understanding the world around me. But I'll be honest, I've had a rough go of it. I lost all my savings, about $5,000, trading on these markets. That hurt. A lot. Still, I don't blame the markets themselves. That loss taught me to be more careful, to dig deeper before placing a trade. And I believe these platforms are worth protecting because of the unique value they offer.
What sets prediction markets apart is how they produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand. When I'm trading on Kalshi, the prices reflect a kind of crowd wisdom you can't get from a news anchor or a Twitter thread. For example, during the last election cycle, the market odds on certain outcomes were closer to the actual results than most surveys I saw. That kind of information isn't just helpful to traders like me; it's valuable to everyone, from journalists to policymakers. It's a public good, and shutting down these markets would mean losing that insight.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues. But those problems aren't unique to prediction markets, and the CFTC already has tools to tackle them. Banning or over-restricting event contracts to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the rest of us who use these markets responsibly. Specifically, in response to Questions 7 and 15 from the ANPR, I believe the public interest is served by keeping prediction markets accessible and that event contracts should be recognized for their economic purpose, not lumped in with gaming.
As a student, I also see this as a way to engage with real-world events in a meaningful way. Trading on these platforms has made me more informed about politics, economics, and even global issues. I hope the CFTC will support innovation by crafting rules that address risks without stifling the benefits.
Please consider proportionate regulation for prediction markets. Don't let broad bans or overly tight rules take away a tool that helps everyday people like me understand and navigate the world. Thank you for taking the time to read my comment.
Sincerely,
Gage Russell
