Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Devin Pock, and I'm just a regular citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a financial expert or a lawyer, just someone who has found real value in prediction markets like Kalshi, where I actively trade. I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than imposing heavy restrictions or outright bans.
I love using Kalshi because it gives me access to information I cant find anywhere else. The prices on these markets often predict outcomes better than polls or TV pundits. Ive seen this firsthand, whether its forecasting election results or economic indicators. That kind of insight isnt just helpful for traders like me; its useful for everyone, from journalists to regular folks trying to make sense of the world. Plus, I use these markets to hedge personal risks. For example, Ive traded on contracts tied to economic data releases that could impact my budget, like inflation numbers affecting my cost of living. This isnt gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks.
I also believe that regulated platforms like Kalshi are a much safer place for people to participate compared to shady offshore sites. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, I worry itll push activity to unregulated corners of the internet where theres no oversight at all. The US should be leading the way on financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. Im all for freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets, and I think the CFTC already has the tools to handle concerns like manipulation or insider trading. Just use those existing powers instead of broad bans that punish everyone.
Regarding some of your specific questions, I want to address numbers 15 to 22 about whether event contracts are gaming. I strongly believe theyre not. These contracts serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery, not just entertainment. And on questions 29 to 32 about inside information, I think informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, which benefits all of us. Bad actors should be prosecuted, sure, but dont shut down the whole market over a few bad apples.
Im asking you to regulate prediction markets in a balanced way. Target the real risks with specific rules, dont just ban entire categories or make it impossible for regular people like me to participate. Lets keep these markets safe, accessible, and innovative right here in the US.
Sincerely,
Devin Pock
