Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Aeden Keister, and I'm a student from Mississippi. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets offer real value to individuals like me, as well as to society at large. I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than imposing broad restrictions or bans.
As a student, I find prediction markets incredibly useful for understanding the world around me. I've noticed that their forecasts on elections and public events are often more accurate than traditional polls or pundit opinions. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders; it benefits everyone by providing clearer insights for decision-making. I also value the chance to participate in a legal, regulated space like Kalshi. If the U.S. over-restricts these markets, I worry that activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe and lack consumer protections. Keeping these markets regulated here in the U.S. ensures transparency and accountability.
I also see real economic purpose in event contracts. They're not gambling, in my view. I use them to hedge personal financial risks tied to things like policy changes or economic events that could affect my future plans, like student loans or job prospects. Businesses use them too, to manage risks from regulatory shifts or other uncertainties. Classifying these contracts as gaming feels wrong when they serve such practical needs. On top of that, informed trading in these markets actually improves price discovery, which helps everyone get better data.
I'm particularly drawn to a few questions in the ANPR. For Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the CFTC can do both by focusing on targeted rules rather than broad bans. For Question 15, on defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I believe event contracts clearly serve economic purposes like hedging and shouldn't be lumped in with gambling. And for Question 29, regarding inside information, I think informed traders often make prices more accurate, and existing laws already address insider trading. The CFTC has strong tools to tackle manipulation, so there's no need to restrict entire markets to stop a few bad actors.
I also believe the U.S. should lead in financial innovation. If we over-regulate, we risk ceding ground to other countries. As a student, I value the academic side too; prediction markets provide data for research, and Id hate to see that stifled. My ask is simple. Please regulate prediction markets in a way that addresses specific risks without shutting down their benefits. Keep them accessible, safe, and transparent for people like me.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Aeden Keister
