Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ali Khaled, and I'm a trader and investor based in New York. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe these markets provide unique value that deserves thoughtful regulation, not outright restrictions.
As someone who trades regularly, I rely on prediction markets for insights that I can't find anywhere else. The prices on these platforms often predict outcomes for elections and public events more accurately than polls or media pundits. I saw this firsthand during the last election cycle when Kalshi's odds on certain races were spot on, while traditional forecasts missed the mark. This kind of information isn't just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone, from journalists to regular citizens, make sense of what's likely to happen. It's a public good, plain and simple.
I also want to stress that regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than the alternative. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these platforms, people like me won't stop trading. We'll just move to unregulated offshore sites that don't have the same oversight or consumer protections. I've seen those platforms out there, and they're a mess, with no accountability if something goes wrong. Keeping prediction markets under CFTC supervision ensures transparency and reduces risks of fraud or manipulation. It's the smarter path.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or market abuse, and I get it. Those are real issues. But the answer isn't shutting down these markets. Laws already exist to prohibit federal employees or anyone else from trading on nonpublic information, and the CFTC has tools to tackle manipulation. Use those tools. Don't punish the rest of us by banning a valuable market because of a few bad actors. On this point, I'm particularly drawn to Questions 29-32 in the ANPR about inside information. I believe informed traders often improve price discovery, and the focus should be on enforcing existing rules, not creating broad prohibitions.
Prediction markets aren't gambling, either. Trading on them takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. I've spent hours analyzing data before placing a trade on an election outcome. It's a skill, not a game of chance.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Don't let heavy-handed restrictions push activity into unsafe, offshore spaces. Let's keep the US as a leader in financial innovation and give traders like me a safe, regulated place to participate.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Ali Khaled
